James recently wrote an article on wine investment for the Financial Times and interviewed several leading wine merchants for the special report. One of the interviewees is Anthony Maxwell, director of Liv-ex, the London-based online wine trading platform.
In the interview, he revealed that in 2015, consumer interest for wine investment shifted more to Champagne, Burgundy and Italy after dwindling trading activities on Bordeaux since 2010. Bordeaux, whose market share fell from peak 95% in 2010 to 74% in 2015, however, is poised for a comeback after declines in the past four years, he adds, especially with a possible top En Primeur vintage for 2015.
Meanwhile, trading for Italian wines continues to rise, he says, and Super Tuscans are “attracting most secondary market activities”. Sassicaia has become the third most traded brand after Mouton Rothschild and Lafite Rothschild, he continues.
In the interview below, he also shares his overall analysis of wine investment in 2015, and some of the most coveted Italian wine brands that you should watch out for for wine investment.
JamesSuckling.com: What are your views on wine investment at the moment?
Anthony Maxwell: Overall, the fundamentals remain good. After four consecutive years of decline, the market has been holding steady since July 2014. Since then, the Liv-ex 100 – the industry’s benchmark index – has gained 3.3%. Bordeaux looks prime for a comeback: Bordeaux 2010 is back in focus and there is potentially a top En Primeur vintage in the pipeline with the 2015, which traditionally boosts the wider Bordeaux market and brings interest and focus back to Bordeaux – if the price is right.
JamesSuckling.com: How is Bordeaux selling?
Anthony Maxwell: Bordeaux’s market share peaked at 95% in 2010 but has been declining ever since. So far in 2015, the region has accounted for 74% of trade on Liv-Ex. However, the fall has stabilized in the last few months. There is still a strong appetite for Left Bank brands with some bottle age – and the 2012s have attracted attention as they have come to market this year. The 2010 vintage is the most popular vintage currently, while the focus in the first half of the year was on 2005.
JamesSuckling.com: Is there any upside to Burgundy? Why?
Anthony Maxwell: Over five years, Burgundy has outperformed the market – the Burgundy 150 index is up 42% while the Bordeaux dominated Liv-ex 100 is down 22% But, its trade share has begun to drift (6.2% so far in 2015 compared with 6.4% in 2014). So, unlike Italy and Champagne it has not made volume gains during Bordeaux’s retreat.
JamesSuckling.com: Any other regions to highlight for wine investment, price inflation or just plain collecting?
Anthony Maxwell: Champagne has seen increased activity this year, in part, due to the high number of recent vintage releases onto the market. Its market share is 6.6% so far in 2015 compared to 3.0% in 2014. The Champagne 50 index is up 2.1% over one year and 9.4% over three years.
JamesSuckling.com: Italy seems to be outperforming most regions at the moment, are you bullish? Why?
Anthony Maxwell: Prices for Italian wines are consolidating at the moment: the Italy 100 Index is up 1.3% over one year, but 21% over five years. Market share has definitely been on the rise, 7% Year-To-Date in 2015, up from 5.1% in 2014. Sassicaia is the third most traded brand on the market (after Mouton Rothschild and Lafite Rothschild).
The Super Tuscan brands more generally have gained momentum as seen below. These brands have built a good following in many parts of the world but will need to keep prices in line with expectations.
JamesSuckling.com: What areas from Italy sell the best?
Anthony Maxwell: Super Tuscans, which accounted for 75% of Italian trade on Liv-Ex over the past year, attract the most secondary market activity. They are producing large volumes – similar to Bordeaux Classified Growths – and while Bordeaux has been out of favor, they have looked attractive. A string of very good recent vintages has also helped, when set against Bordeaux’s difficult vintages. Piedmont wines sell well, but similar to Burgundy, remain small on the market due to lower production levels.
JamesSuckling.com: What producers are the most highly coveted?
Anthony Maxwell: Super Tuscans (specifically Sassicaia, Ornellaia, Masseto, Tignanello, Solaia), Gaja, G. Mascarello, Giacosa, Roberto Voerzio, Petrolo, Sandrone, Rampolla, Giacomo Conterno.
Photos from top to bottom: Anthony Maxwell, director of Liv-ex; 2000 Sassicaia
