Critics’ reviews of the 2020 Bordeaux were overwhelmingly positive, making it the third straight year the famous French wine region has turned in a sterling vintage. James said 2020 capped off what he referred to as a calling a “high-quality trilogy of superlative years.” But there were questions about how far producers could go in raising prices in comparison with the 2019s while still remaining in “fair value” territory.
We explored possible pricing options for First Growths in a report published earlier this month in conjunction with Liv-ex, the global marketplace for wine. Liv-ex took the current prices for back vintages up to 2019 and proposed some fair value landing spots for the current vintage, with 5 percent, 10 percent and 20 percent increases on the 2019 ex-negociant prices for the current vintage of Lafite-Rothschild, Mouton Rothschild, Haut-Brion and Margaux. Liv-ex did the same for five Second Growth wines – Cos d’Estournel, Ducru-Beaucaillou, Léoville Las Cases, Léoville Poyferré and Montrose.
Now that the prices for the other First and Second Growths are in, we can see exactly where each of these wines falls in terms of fair value in comparison with the 2019 and earlier vintages. The fears that producers would break the bank on affordability with the 2020 vintage, throwing out the goodwill they generated with the budget-conscious 2019 vintage, did not come to pass. In fact, the First Growths were relatively reasonably priced, especially in comparison with a number of top vintages, such as the 2018 or even the 2016.
And although Second Growths took higher prices, the word on the market is that they sold well in comparison with past vintages.
FIRST GROWTHS
The Chateau Lafite Rothschild Pauillac 2020, which James likened to “the great wines of the 1980s and 1990s,” was the first release to the international market earlier this month: it came in at £5,880 (US$8,148) per case – a premium of 8.9 percent on the current market value of the 2019. Despite the increase, Liv-ex said the wine remains at what it considers to be in fair value territory, given its placement below Liv-ex’s methodological regression line. Given that its “Benchmark Critic” score was 97, the Lafite 2020 could almost be viewed as a great-value wine considering its position in the fine wine market.
This wine was one of James’ favorites from the 2020s, and he rated it 99-100 points, saying it had “superb presence with tannins that melt into the wine.”
As you can see from the above chart, though, several other Lafite vintages stack up well against the 2020 in terms of price, including the 2019, which had the same Benchmark Critic rating of 97, the 2014 (13.3% less) and the 2017. But the 2020 is a much better deal than the 2015, which is similarly priced but comes with a Benchmark Critic rating of 94.
Liv-ex said the greatest upside for prices on the 2020s lay with the Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac 2020, given that the 2019 had risen 39% since its release, the most among all the First Growths from the vintage.
In fact, Liv-ex commented that Mouton should limit the price increase for this wine to no more than 10%, and Mouton did just that. The price of £5,196 is a moderate increase of 6% on the current price of the 2019, and well within Liv-ex’s parameters for fair value. With an overall critics’ score of 97 (James gave it a 99-100, calling it “great and impressive,” with “plushness and precision”) it should be a price the wine trade is willing to pay.
Liv-ex also saw room for pricing upside on the Châteaux Margaux Margaux 2020, given its high average rating of 98. James called it “a fantastic wine,” with a “wonderful combination of refinement and power.” Liv-ex said that even a price increase of up to 20% “would render the 2020 Fair Value, and still below the current price of the similarly rated 2016.”
With room to maneuver on price, what did Chateau Margaux do? It actually brought it down a notch – 3.4% less, to be exact, on the current market price of the 2019 (although 30% up on the 2019 release price), making it one of the best deals of the bunch and putting to rest any worries about potential overpricing of Bordeaux 2020 First Growths.
The 2020 Margaux is an especially good deal in comparison with the similarly rated 2016, and even costs less than the 96-point 2018.
The Chateau Haut-Brion Pessac-Léognan 2020, is similarly good value, given its Benchmark Critic rating of 97 and the fact that James wondered if this could be considered “the wine of the 2020 vintage”. He rated it 99-100 points, calling it a “superb” wine, “with incredible tannins that are wonderfully fine-grained. It’s really powerful.”
Although the 2020 is the estate’s most expensive release since the 2010 vintage (with 30% less quantity released), with a price of £5,196 per case, or 8.5% more than the current market price of the 2019, several 100-point scores from critics make it a compelling buy. It is also much more affordable than the similarly rated 2010 and 2009 vintages, although the 97-point 2015 remains a better value. The 2020 is the most expensive of the trilogy.
SECOND GROWTHS
In the view of Liv-ex, the Château Cos d’Estournel St.-Estèphe 2020, with a Benchmark Critic score of 96, did not have much room for price growth, considering where the price of the higher-rated 2019 is and that both the 2018 and 2005 vintages had the same score. James rated it a 97-98, saying it was a “very refined, polished Cos with superb finesse and length,” in addition to being “rich, but fresh and linear.”
According to the Liv-ex methodology, “even a small increase in price will make the 2020 look fully priced.” And fully price the wine is what Cos d’Estournel did, and then some. The 2020 is being offered by the international trade at £1,800 per case, a whopping 31.6% more than the current market price of the 97-point 2019 (with volumes released down a reported 25% from last year).
Even with the price increase (and the fact it comes in commemorative bottling), Liv-ex said the 2020 was well within fair value grounds. Still, a much better value Cos d’Estournel is the 100-point 2016, which is available for a more affordable £1,400 per case.
The Château Léoville Las Cases St.-Julien 2020 is now on the market at £2,376 per case – another significant increase of 36% on the current 2019 market price and much more of a jump than the 10% upward ceiling that Liv-ex said would keep the wine in fair value territory. Considering how highly rated it is, though – an overall Benchmark Critic score of 97 – the price is perhaps justified. James scored it at above the average score, rating it 98-99, saying it was “incredibly classic in style,” a “real Las Cases” and “solid as a rock.” Still, the 2019, at 36% cheaper and with the same benchmark rating, offers more immediate value by comparison.
An even better deal is the 2015 vintage, which also scored 97 points but at £1,500 per case is 58% less expensive than the 2020.
James rated the Château Léoville Poyferré St.-Julienne 2020 a 96-97, saying it had “impressive purity of fruit on the nose with crushed raspberries, blackcurrants and blackberries” and was “full-bodied with very polished, intense tannins that go on for minutes.”
But is the cost of the 2020, at £864 per case by the international trade, or 23% more than the current market price of the 2019, justified? At an average rating of 96, it is an excellent wine but still rates below 2019’s 97-point rating. It is also more expensive than all the vintages dating back to 2011.
In the view of Liv-ex, it is still considered a fair value, and the special commemorative label that comes with it may tempt more buyers. But the 2019 looks like a vastly better option.
The Château Ducru-Beaucaillou St.-Julien 2020 was also highly rated by James, at 98-99 points, although Liv-ex’s Benchmark Critic score was 96. James praised its “gorgeous cabernet sauvignon character,” finding it bull-bodied and “really perfumed and complex with blackberries, blackcurrants and flowers. In a word, he said, “ethereal.”
But at a price of £1,920 per case, or 19.8% more than the current market price of the 2019, it is hitting the ceiling of affordability. Although it falls within Liv-ex’s fair value calculus, older vintages look just as attractive, and with much better price points.
Finally, the Château Montrose St.-Estephe 2020 has come to market at £1,540 per case, another strong premium of 28% on the current market price of the 2019. The Montrose was another anomaly in that it did not receive a Benchmark Critic score because it did not send samples to critics.
There are also much better deals for the Montrose in the 2017, 2015 and 2014 vintages.
In conclusion, second growths appear to have overshot the market with their price increases in en primeur 2020 along with a few others, while ironically the first growths and some other blue-chip wineries remained more reasonable even though they could have sold their futures for more. Yet conversations with wine merchants in Hong Kong, New York and London say sales were good overall on 2020 Bordeaux. Who was right?
– Vincent Morkri
The data in this article has been provided by Liv-ex, the global marketplace for the wine trade. Along with a comprehensive database of real-time transaction prices, Liv-ex offers the wine trade smarter ways to do business. Liv-ex offers access to £80m worth of wine and the ability to trade with 530+ other wine businesses worldwide. They also organise payment and delivery through their storage, transportation and support services. Wine businesses can find out how to price, buy and sell wine smarter at www.liv-ex.com.
